Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Poll Tracker - March 30, 2011

With the beginning of the election, I'll be tracking the polls and reporting here on a daily basis or whenever there is something interesting to report. I'll post more details how I am compiling the data later.

There has only been one poll released that contains data from after the election call and that is the recent Nanos poll that showed the Tories in the lead with 38% and the Liberals trailing at 29%, little change from the previous poll taken before the election call. It also lines up well with the Angus Reid poll, the latest Harris-Decima poll and the Abacus poll all taken before the election. Which is to say, with few exceptions, the polling is pretty consistent, and boring.

In the absence of any really interesting polling data, some journalists are making mountains out of molehills. They rightly point out that in the latest Nanos poll on leadership, on the items of "Trust", "Competence" and "Vision for Canada", Ignatieff has increased from 43.4 to 46.7, a total of 3.3, and suggest that Canadians are 'warming' to him. Meanwhile, Green Party leader Elizabeth May increased from 6.4 to 10.2, a total of 3.8 and Harper increased from 84.8 to 89.5, a total of 4.7. Both of which are greater than the increase that Ignatieff saw.

The real story is the decline that Layton saw, dropping 17.8 points from 61.4 to 43.6. A significant decline for the time period, but only time will tell if this trend continues.


Thucydides said...

Today I heard Mr Ignatieffs radio ad against the CF-35 and corporate tax cuts. I had to stop and shake my head after listening, because he was speaking against a fighter program brought into place by Mr Chreitien in 1997, and supported by Mr Martin, Mr Dion and himself until now. His party also voted in favour of the corporate tax cuts in 2007.

He is also now against a coalition which he signed in support of, even though the contract with the NDP and Bloc won't expire until June of this year.

Mr Ignatieff is running against his own party! If he does not want to defend the record of the Liberal Party, why is he running for the Liberals? This must be very confusing for voters.

Ted Betts said...

Nano has the gap suddenly narrowing to 6% with the Liberals up to 33% and Conservatives holding.

Eric said...


I don't actually believe the Nanos results are correct. I'll detail my concerns in the next post.

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