Tuesday, April 12, 2011

Polling Trends - April 12th

I didn't bother posting an update for the last number of days because there really was nothing interesting going on, although rest assured I was faithfully updating the spreadsheet with the latest polls. With the leadership debate tonight and the recent leak of a draft of the Auditor Generals report on G8 spending, there might be a change in the polls in the next few days. Or there might not.

My opinion, for what its worth, is that Liberal/NDP/Bloc partisans will take the leak as affirmation of their previously held views. Conservatives partisans will point out that its just a draft and that later drafts removed the infla
mmatory language replacing it with a relatively mild request for additional transparency. Non-partisans will shrug and won't generally care since we all already knew that the government had spent over $1 billion on the G8/G20 (think of all the press coverage on the fake lake).

We'll find out better tomorrow and the next day if this scandal has really affected the Tories. Looking at the Nanos tracking poll, when polling from April 9th was included, the Tories dropped from 40.5% to 39.5% in the three-day rolling average, indicating that the Tories polled lower on April 9th than usual. Tomorrow's poll will drop the April 9th result and add April 12th. So if the Tories' support is really unaffected, we should see their support increase slightly. If they decrease slightly, that'll mean that the issue really has affected the Tories negatively.

Although after that the effect of the debate and post-debate spin will take over, so I'm not sure if it will have a long term effect one way or another.

In my polling averaging system, the Tories sit at 38.7%, the Liberals at 27.9%, the NDP at 17.3%, the Bloc at 8.7% and the Greens at 6.5%.

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