Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Polling Trends - April 5th

Just a quick update, only three new polls to report on, the EKOS-iPolitics poll and two Nanos polls. No significant net change to the overall standings in my poll tracker... *yawn*

My poll compilation shows the Tories at 37.9%, the Liberals at 27.5%, the NDP at 17.2%, the Bloc at 8.7% and the Green trailing at 6.8%. Remember that this is not a straight average of the recent polls but rather is a trending of all the recent polls. Since the election call, the Liberals have slowly trended upwards and the Tories have remained stagnant at about 38%, which indicates to me that Ignatieff is making some headway in winning over some votes, but hasn't convinced the vast majority of the voters to take him serious enough to consider switching.

Either that, or most Canadians are completely tuned out.


Calgary Junkie said...

Two good indicators of how we're doing:

Frank Graves looked pretty glum today on "Power & Politics", even though he was putting a negative spin on how we are doing in his latest poll.

Second, Nik's "leadership index" has Harper at 109.7 (+14.4), and Iggy at 37.9 (-7.3). Nik has often said (and John Ibbitson repeated today), the leadership index is a leading indicator of the horeserace numbers.

However, I expect our 39.7 number to go down tomorrow, because the good sample of 400 that we had on Sunday night will drop off. But after that, we should start going up again.

Conventional wisdom has it that a leader polling this much lower than his party is going to drag it down towards him. Too bad for the Libs they can't ditch Iggy like the Alberta PCs ditched Ed.

Jeff said...

From my door to door work, I'd say many people are not paying attention yet.

Miles Lunn said...

I doubt the polls will change too much before the debates. April 17th which is five days after the English debates will be when we will get a better idea of where things are. If Ignatieff does well in the debate, expect the gap to narrow considerably, if it is a wash expect no change, while if Harper outperforms Ignatieff expect the Tories to move back into majority territory.

Roy Elsworth said...

the debates don't mean nothing because they always over talk each other and I don't know how well pm harper will do with all the biast leftys runnign the debates. and screend questions from the public will be used and none will be soft ball questions to pm harper. I think we need exra levant on there to monitor it or ask questions. to make it fair.

Roy Elsworth said...

I have an idea bring in an american to ask the qwuestions then they won't screen the questions.

Eric said...

I'm not convinced anyone will really watch the debates. People will wait till the day after to see what the punditry says.

Jeff, from my experience with my co-workers I'd say tuned out is a good description. Calgary Junkie, good analysis.

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