Saturday, April 16, 2011

Polling Trends - The Rise of Layton?

Once I again I am delinquent in posting an update, mostly because nothing has changed. The Tories are stuck around 39%, the Liberals around 27% and NDP around 19%. The debates had no significant effect, the mini-scandals have had no effect, nothing has had any effect. Or have they?

I like how some polling groups try to look at underlying perceptions of politicians (ie Nanos' leadership indicators; trust, competence, vision). It kind of gives an indication why voters might not be responding to particular attacks and why they might. Case in point is Ignatieff; who has made quite a big deal attacking Harper on the issue of 'trust' without luck. Yet, Nanos indicates that voters are nearly three times more likely to say the trust Harper the most than Ignatieff. Even if the polls are not completely accurate, on a macro scale they sho
w that Harper is considered more trustworthy than Ignatieff. That would explain why Ignatieff's attacks fall an deaf ears.

Ignoring polls that show Layton rising in support, which depends entirely one which pollster you are speaking with. Nanos' leadership indicators currently show him at his highest levels ever and rising steadily. Moreover, Nanos' three day tracking polls have shown the NDP rising in support for 7 out of the last 8 days. Comparatively, the Conservatives have risen 3 of the last 8 and the Liberals have risen in only 2 of the last 8. This doesn't mean we're going to end up with a Bob Rae type scenario where the NDP pulls a rabbit out of the hat, but this could be the real trend to watch.

Figure 1: Election polls since March 27th, including trending.


hunter said...

A strong NDP vote will allow the Conservatives to win some close ridings from the Liberals.

L said...

Who are the idiots who vote NDP? or Bloc or Green. They may as well go home.

Eric said...

Hunter: A strong NDP vote will allow the NDP to take some ridings from the Conservatives or prevent some pickups as well.

L: I have voted NDP before and one of my relatives was a candidate for the NDP back in the day. I like their principles on more free votes, reform/abolish the Senate, lower small business taxes, etc... The fact that Layton resisted pressure to whip his MPs into all voting in favour of the registry reminded me of the fact that the NDP hasn't yet surrendered all their principles.

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