Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Told You So... Margins of Error

Hate to say I told you so, but I did. Today, in Nanos' 'Leadership Index' Harper is up a whopping 15%, more than making up for the amount he dropped. Since the attacks ads are still running, I guess those ads weren't as effective as some thought, eh?

Sure some will say it was turned around because of the CPC's job in highlighting the Liberals attributing something to Harper that he didn't say. But journalists were decrying the Conservatives as having blundered in doing so too.

So without any likely explanation for a sudden drop in people's views of Harper followed by a sudden jump, its more reasonable to believe that their support didn't change significantly and it was just a statistical movement about the true average.

Everyone appreciates that its journalists' job to analyze the latest data and try to present a good story to explain movements in polls during an election. But lets not get carried away by single day movements within the margins of error.

3 comments:

bertie said...

New Nanos this AM Conservatives lead by 11%..All the talk is about the NDP.What can we expect eh!

Alberta Girl said...

All day yesterday, every newcast lead with the Conservatives dropping and the NDP surging...I expect they will lead todays with the Conservatives surgi......oh, yeah.

Well maybe not.

dmorris said...

I suppose in the wet dream world of the majority of the MSM, if they can't have Prime Minister Ignatieff, PM Layton would do.

I'd love to see Canada after four years of Layton government,though in a "virtual" world,not the real one!

THAT is way too scary! Lessee now, 18 million unionized government employees with fat pensions..............

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