Sunday, May 1, 2011

Final Polling Prediction

While I was derelict in my duties updating this blog, I did update my poll tracker and am willing to try to make a prediction as to where the parties will end up tomorrow. The final polls have been incorporated into the graphic below.

Based on the polls performed throughout the campaign, I predict that the final results will be:

CPC 36.3%
LPC 21.9%
NDP 28.3%
BQ 7.0%
GRN 5.6%

This shows the CPC about where they have been throughout the campaign, but shows the NDP lower than the most recent polls. The model does not account for large movements during the campaign well, but we'll see if its conservative estimate ends up being more correct.